I have been monitoring the UK power generation for about 5 years using Elexon 1 hour snapshots . On June 1st Elexon introduced their equivalent power monitoring system and stopped supporting the snapshot data interface that I have been using for the last 9 years. Therefore it makes no sense for me to continue my old version, so instead I will in future access their data directly However my system will still be able to monitor the political efforts to”transition” to low carbon power sources (Wind & Solar) which is once again being hyped up as an election issue. My latest analysis with the bold interface again demonstrates the underlying problems of relying on intermittent power sources (you can’t).
Power generation by fuel type up to January 2024
Winter 2023 suffered several wind deserts, while demand has actually increased compared to a year ago. I suspect this is probably due to the rapid increase in electric car usage and perhaps also increased use of heat pumps. There is unfortunately no such thing as a free lunch !
The severe anti-correlation of gas generation to wind power to balance the grid is shown below. Even coal generation was needed a couple of times to help meet demand.
Comparison of Wind Power generation with Gas generation. You can see an almost perfect anti-correlation. Natural Gas is an essential fuel for the UK.
All main political parties pay lip service to the “Net Zero” energy agenda. Achieving net zero was even put into UK law by Ed Miliband with his Climate Change Act. The problem though is that achieving such a goal is currently impossible! Furthermore this conclusion will not change even if we were to double current Wind and Solar generation. Engineers should determine energy policy – not politicians! The only proven way to cut carbon emissions to zero is to invest in more nuclear power like France, but no doubt the Green Party and others will oppose that too. So currently it also makes far more sense to continue extracting our own North Sea Gas instead of importing liquified gas with a much larger carbon footprint ! As a result energy costs will continue to rise mainly to satisfy short term political posturing, and there is not a hope in hell Net Zero can be reached based on renewables alone.
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